Thursday, December 31, 2009

Market Commentary for Dec. 31st 2009

Thursday’s bond market is closing the year out with a negative day. The stock markets appear to be following suit with the Dow down 42 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, which will likely push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department reported this morning that 438,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, falling well short of the 460,000 that was expected. This was also the lowest number of new claims since July 2008. However, this may have to do more with the fact of the holiday falling on a weekday last week than strength in the labor market. Still, bonds are reacting negatively to the news and with the low volume or thin trading because of the holiday, the reaction has been stronger than it normally would be.

Yesterday’s 7-year Note auction went fairly well. It was met with an interest level that was average of the past four 7-year Note sales. This means not particularly strong or weak. The market reaction to the results was fairly muted and had little impact on mortgage rates.

The bond market will close at 2:00 PM ET today ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday tomorrow. All of the U.S. financial markets will be closed tomorrow will reopen for regular hours Monday morning.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of very important reports. The first comes Monday morning when the Institute for Supply Management will release their manufacturing index for December. It measures manufacturer sentiment and is considered to be one of the more important reports we see each month. Current forecasts are calling for a slight increase in sentiment from November’s level, meaning that the manufacturing sector likely did not weaken this month.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday, December 18, 2009

Market Commentary for Dec. 18th 2009

Friday’s bond market has opened down slightly with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing relatively minor gains with the Dow up 8 points and the Nasdaq up 16 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but I am still expecting to see a small improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates due to strength late yesterday.

We likely will see plenty of movement in stocks today as a result of option expirations. Therefore, we cannot rely on stocks to give direction to bonds since the movement in the major stock indexes will be due more to the expirations than direct concerns or optimism about the economy. In other words, it will likely be a directionless day for unless something unexpected occurs. This will likely prevent seeing changes to mortgage rates this afternoon.

Next week brings us the release of a couple of important economic reports for the markets to digest. Included in next week’s releases are a couple of housing sector reports, data on personal income and spending along with a high profile manufacturing report. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday, so look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing.

The next two weeks are holiday’s shortened trading weeks due to the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. As we get closer to those particular days, the market tends to thin as traders head home early for the holiday weekends. This sometimes leads to larger than normal reactions to some of the key reports or any significant news releases. But look for more details on next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Market Commentary for Dec. 17th 2009

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following a weak open in stocks. The stock markets are reacting to overseas losses and concerns about the economy after yesterday’s FOMC comments. The Dow is currently down 98 points while the Nasdaq has lost 23 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32, which will likely improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount compared to yesterday’s morning rates.

The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures early this morning. They announced that 480,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was good news for bonds because it was a higher number of claims than was expected. However, this data usually has little impact on mortgage rates because it tracks only a week’s worth of new claims.

Late this morning, the Conference Board posted their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for November. It showed a 0.9% increase, meaning that they think economic activity will be stronger over the next several months than many analysts had thought. This can be considered negative news for bonds, but since this is only a moderately important report, its impact on bond trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow. We likely will see plenty of movement in the stock markets tomorrow as a result of option expirations. Therefore, we cannot rely on stocks to give direction to bonds since the movement in the major stock indexes will be due more to the expirations than direct concerns or optimism about the economy. In other words, it will likely be a directionless day for bonds tomorrow unless something unexpected occurs.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Market Commentary for Dec. 16th 2009 post FOMC meeting update...

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:
This week’s FOMC meeting has adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates. This was widely expected, but the post-meeting statement did renew previous theories that the Fed will not be raising rates soon. They indicated they expect the economy to remain weak in the near future, which makes an increase to key interest rates unlikely.

Despite what can be considered favorable news for bonds, the bond market slipped during afternoon trading to close in down slightly. The stock markets also gave up earlier gains to finish the day mixed. The Dow closed down over 10 points while the Nasdaq closed up 5 points. The bond market selling led to many lenders revising their rates higher slightly this afternoon. Those who did not see an increase of .125 or .250 of discount point increase can expect to have those losses included in tomorrow’s morning rates.

This morning’s major news came from the Labor Department who reported that November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% and that the more important core data reading was unchanged from October’s level. The overall reading matched forecasts but the core data fell short of the 0.2% that was expected. This means that inflation at the consumer level of the economy was not nearly as strong as feared after yesterday’s Producer Price Index was posted. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Today’s second release was November's Housing Starts that gave us an indication of housing sector strength. It matched forecasts of an 8.9% rise in construction starts of new homes, but this data is the least important this week’s reports. Its impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

Tomorrow morning bring us the release of a moderately important when November’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a sizable increase in activity, meaning that it predicts any expanding economy over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.7% increase from October’s reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds. If it shows a smaller increase, the bond market may move slightly higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Market Commentary for Dec. 16th 2009




Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning’s inflation data did not cause concern like yesterday’s PPI release did. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 40 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

This morning’s major news came from the Labor Department who reported that November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% and that the more important core data reading was unchanged from October’s level. The overall reading matched forecasts but the core data fell short of the 0.2% that was expected. This means that inflation at the consumer level of the economy was not nearly as strong as feared after yesterday’s Producer Price Index was posted. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Today’s second release was November's Housing Starts that gave us an indication of housing sector strength. It matched forecasts of an 8.9% rise in construction starts of new homes, but this data is the least important this week’s reports. Its impact on this morning’s bond trading and mortgage rates has been minimal.

Later today, the two-day FOMC meeting with adjourn. There is not much debate about what the Fed will do at this meeting with little chance of them raising key short-term interest rates. Therefore, the post meeting statement will likely be the sole source of a market reaction. This statement has the potential to have a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates as investors look for any indication of what and when the Fed may do next. Generally speaking, the bond market would like to hear something that indicates the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon.

Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to the meeting’s results.

Tomorrow morning does bring us the release of a moderately important when November’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a sizable increase in activity, meaning that it predicts any expanding economy over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.7% increase from October’s reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds. If it shows a smaller increase, the bond market may move slightly higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now...

Monday, December 14, 2009

This is a REALLY cool video on what happened to the Real Estate/Mortgage/ Credit Industry

Give this a few minutes of your time, it's VERY well put together and will help you to understand, in laymen's terms, why big banks are hesitant to give loans to certain people these days. 


The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

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Economic Outlook for Dec 9th, 2009

Wednesday’s bond market has opened relatively flat following an uneventful opening in stocks. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up a couple of points and the Nasdaq down nearly the same. The bond market is practically unchanged from yesterday’s closing level, so I am expecting little change in this morning’s mortgage rates.



There is no relevant economic news being posted today, but we do have the first of this week’s two important Treasury auctions. The 10-year Note sale is being held today while 30-year Bonds will be sold tomorrow. Today’s sale is more important to mortgage rates than tomorrow’s is. If there was a strong demand from investors, we should see bond prices move higher after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. This could lead to downward revisions to mortgage rates this afternoon. However, if the sale was met with a lackluster interest, there is a pretty decent possibility of seeing higher mortgage pricing later today.



October’s Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but it is the week’s least important release. It is expected to show a $37.0 billion trade deficit. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts, I don’t expect it to affect mortgage pricing.



The Labor Department will post last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to announce that 465,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, up from the previous week. That would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the truth is that this data is not considered to be highly important because it tracks only a week’s worth of new claims. It usually takes a wide variance between the announced total of new claims and forecasts for them to have much of an impact on mortgage rates.



We do get some important economic data Friday morning when November’s Retail Sales report is released. This is one of the more important reports released each month since it tracks consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. It is expected to show a 0.7% increase in sales at retail level establishments, meaning consumer spending was stronger in November than in October. Since the market is expecting an increase, it will likely take a larger than expected jump in sales for the bond market to react negatively and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase should lead to lower mortgage rates Friday.



If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Gift Fund Requirements For Conventional Conforming Loans

Gift Funds

Gift Funds

Type

Owner-Occupied

Second Home

Investment

Source


 


 

• Relatives


 

• Domestic partner


 

• FiancĂ© FiancĂ©e


 

• Church


 

• Municipality


 

• Non-profit organizations

Relatives only

Not Allowed.

Percentage of Borrower's Funds

Minimum 5% down payment must be from the borrower's own funds.

Note:

If the LTV/CLTV is less than or equal to 80%, the entire down payment may be a gift.

Minimum 5% down payment must be from the borrower's own funds.

Note:

If the LTV/CLTV is less than or equal to 80%, the entire down payment may be a gift.

N/A


 

Gift Fund Requirements:

Gift funds must be documented by a letter signed by the donor and include the following information:


 

Gift Funds from a Relative:


 

• The dollar amount of the gift and the date funds were transferred.


 

• The donor's name, address, telephone number & relationship to the borrowers.


 

• State that no repayment is expected or required.


 

• Identify the subject property being purchased.


 

Gift Funds from a Municipality or Non-profit Community Organization:


 

• That the funds were provided by a municipality or non-profit community organization.


 

• The donor's mailing address.


 

• A statement that no repayment is required.


 

• Funds were received by the borrower or the property seller on the borrower's behalf.


 

Requirements for Grants

Grants provided by a church, municipality or non-profit organization must be documented by:


 

• A copy of the letter awarding the grant.


 

• A copy of the legal agreement establishing the terms and conditions under which the funds are grated, OR


 

• Evidence of the transfer of funds.


 

• The documentation must specify the amount of the grant, how the funds will be transferred and that no repayment is expected.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Thursday, July 23, 2009

New Weekly "Weekend Update" Mailer Implemented

Sign up for my weekly event listing and be "in the know" regarding everything cool to do every weekend in our fair city of Portland!








Thursday, July 2, 2009

The Story of My Engagement to Wendie Hooker

The Story of My Engagement to Wendie Michelle Hooker

By Bryce Christian Elder


During the first week of February, I came to a few realizations about where I was in life, and where I was going. It just kind of happened. It wasn’t forced, it wasn’t out of necessity, and it wasn’t out of frustration or desperation. No. Quite to the contrary, it was more like a light bulb turning on—a switch was flipped, and a realization came to fruition. I just knew it was time to ask Wendie to marry me.

Wendie and I have often answered questions as to how long we have been dating with more questions, asking if people want to know the answer in terms of “cumulatively” or “recently”. That’s how you have to calculate for long separated high school sweethearts. The real answer is that we’ve known each other for over 10 years now, and have dated for almost half that time. During those years, whether they saw us together or separate, we found out a lot about ourselves; Our strengths, and our weaknesses… Our tendencies, needs, and wants. All of which seemed to align themselves, and we now know that we understand each other better because of it all, and that it is the right timing.

So, rather than bore you with our reasoning, let’s get down to the juicy tidbits about what you REALLY want to know, which is “How did it all go down”? I shall henceforth indulge you!

As I said before, early February was when I knew. That was nice, because it coincided well with the possibility of being able to construct a proper atmosphere which would be conducive to my prospects of getting Wendie to be just distracted enough.

We had shopped for jewelry on a few occasions prior to this, and I had always played the bumbling idiot who didn’t know the first thing about what a girl wants in a ring, but as of the past few months, I had been getting better at knowing what to look for, and after a year and a half of Wendie showing me what she liked, I had a VERY good idea what that was. However, I did need to verify a few things first. So I visited my good friend Kris at Jared across from the Clackamas Town Center. She was a tremendous source of knowledge, and we narrowed the field to just a few.

Wendie and I just “happened” to visit her the next week, and Kris allowed her to react to some of the ideas we had put together in the days leading up to that point without letting on that we were in cahoots. My estimations were proven correct, and I knew I had made the right gemological decision. I visited Kris again the next day, and we finalized the ring purchase. Without going into too much detail, it is a brilliant oval cut, set in a dainty tiffany style band, with four prongs. A fairytale ring, with quite the bling!

Our Valentines Day trip was to consist of a beach trip, in which we would visit Cannon Beach, Seaside, and if possible, Astoria (where I did a bit of growing up as a child). I figured that since Wendie had recently been very excited about going to the beach and seeing Haystack Rock, that it might provide the right backdrop. If THAT didn’t work, I knew that one of her favorite foods in this whole wide world is Elephant Ears, which can be found at a particular shop in Seaside. I figured it might be an easy transition to go from talking about how sweet the confection was, and then transition to telling how much MORE sweet life would be if she would just marry me…blah blah blah. If THAT didn’t work, then I knew it would be a good idea to take her to the Astor Column in Astoria, which overlooks the mouth of the Columbia River, the Pacific Ocean, and the Young’s Bay area, which is absolutely gorgeous any time of year. I had figured that I might tie the view in with a diatribe about how “perspective is important in life, and now that I have had 10 years of perspective—will you marry me… etc etc etc.” So I had a few different ideas about where this might go ahead of time, but nothing set in concrete.
Again, I wasn’t going to rush it if the right moment didn’t present itself.

So, now that you have the right pretext… Here’s how it played out.

We arrived in Cannon Beach somewhere around noon, and to our surprise, it was packed. Quite literally, everyone and their dog was there. I swear there must have been a dog show somewhere that day! Wendie and I drove around trying to find a parking spot for about a half an hour, and stopped for a bit to admire Haystack rock from the relative comfort of the car. I asked her if she wanted to go check it out (so that I could profess my love for her in front of a huge rock, while putting a huge rock on her finger. Tee hee!) And she said “--nope, I just wanted to see it! Let’s go poke around the shops!” Dejected, I agreed, and we walked down the street to the shops.

As we walked, I realized that carrying such a large box in my inside jacket pocket was a bit awkward. Since if she were to hug me, she would definitely feel the bulge, and my cover would be blown. (Insert dirty joke here). I didn’t want her to see or bump up against it, so I tried my best to keep her on my left side all day long. (This is easier said than done, without performing awkward dance moves.) (Insert awkward Bryce-joke here)

We had walked a bit further down the sidewalk, and I saw a sign for the Elephant Ear shop. Sooner than I had thought! I figured this might just work out, so we went in. As we entered the shop, we realized we were the only ones there, save for the attendant inside who was a bit hunched over. I didn’t realize it, but Wendie poked me (almost in the ring box area) and pointed at him. He was fast asleep on the job. We laughed as he snorted, and just walked out of the shop. Pretty funny, but also discouraged my tactical approach.

We soon tired of Cannon Beach, jumped in the car and headed for Seaside, all the while stopping to check to see if there were any vacancies at local hotels. There were none. No Vacancies all the way up and down the coast. Here I was, prepared to spring on even an expensive one to celebrate, and none could be found, due to my lack of preparation. We arrived at Seaside, parked, and began walking up and down the crowded streets, looking at different shops, and generally having a good time. We found the elephant ear place, and ordered one. We told the attendants there about the sleepy guy at their other store, and they laughed and thanked us for the funny story. We sat down to eat our elephant ear, and I realized that it was just too crowded to be so serious. There was a cacophony of people, arcade sounds, cars, and birds. It was too distracting, and among too many people. I bagged the idea. We finished the treats and decided we should try to make it to Astoria so that we could watch the sun set from the Astor Column. It was a beautiful day on the beach. Mostly sunny and 50+ degrees.

As we drove up highway 101 towards Astoria, I looked to the east, and saw thick sheets of rain. I showed Wendie, and said “I sure hope that’s not over Astoria”. As we drove over the Young’s Bay Bridge, I realized that it was indeed raining in Astoria. My prospects darkened with the skyline.

The closer we got to Astoria, the more I realized I had no idea how to get up to the Column. So we stopped at a coffee hut, and asked directions while simultaneously acquiring needed caffeine and warmth.

After getting our bearings and heading up the hill, it started to rain even harder. Small drops of the very concentrated type. It was also getting to be a little late, and also a bit cold.

Just as we reached the top of the hill, we had to stop, because just to our left, there was a beautiful deer standing in the middle of the lawn looking confused. We watched her for a few minutes, and she bounded away. The light from the sunset was bouncing off of everything, and cast a deep orange hue on the surrounding area. It was absolutely mind bogglingly beautiful, and made us both very thankful that we were able to be there just at the right time.

We parked, grabbed our coats and coffee to keep warm, and started up towards the tower. As we approached the column, we noticed that there were barricades in the doorframe. The tower was closed for renovation. I was pretty sad about that, but was also determined to make use of this perfect sunset, and magical setting. We pouted for about 20 seconds about the column being shut down, and then turn our attention to the West. The sun was just coming out from beneath a cover of clouds, and now illuminated the ocean 15 miles or so away. I had never noticed that it was that close! To each side of us, the orange sunset retreated into deep blues and silvers, and out in the Columbia River, there appeared a rainbow!

As we stood there, taking it all in, it continued to rain. Not having anything but our coats to keep us dry, we were beginning to get soaked. Wendie, in particular, was getting antsy to get back to the car, and watch the rest of the sunset where it was dry. I myself, not wanting her to go, because I was searching for the right words and clutching the box in my inside pocket…

I tried to start in with a pondering of the theme of “perspective”, saying to her that it was “so good to finally get up here and get some perspective… and that perspective in life is good”, and that “so and so” and “blah, blah blah…” but it JUST WASN’T COMING OUT RIGHT. Wendie was nice to be patient for a little bit, but finally couldn’t stand being wet and cold anymore. Understandably so! She said “Ok, baby, I’m cold, and wet… let’s go to the car!” I said, “no, babe! This is just… so beautiful…” trying my best to stall to get more time to think.

I set my coffee down on the metal and concrete map of the area, and put my hands in my coat pockets. She looked at me and asked what I was doing… I told her I was taking it all in. She said “OK, you’re crazy, I’m leaving!”, and just as I said, “No don’t leave…”

Something inside me snapped. Everything became clear and apparent.
I whirled around, grabbed her by her shoulder, and positioned myself between her and the setting sun (in order to maximize impact), and told her “No. You don’t understand. I don’t want you to EVER leave…” Kneeled in the puddle below, pulled out the ring and asked her to be my wife. “Wendie Michelle Hooker, will you be my wife?” I said (with the utmost confidence).

She reacted with a show of disbelief. “What!? Where?! When?! How?! –realizing she had her coffee in her hand and was unable to find the right word…put it down—YES!!!” Came the reply.

We kissed, and hugged, soaking wet and cold, but at that point didn’t care because it was a perfect moment.